{
  "trade_date": "2026-04-28",
  "market_bias": "WEAK_DEFENSIVE",
  "market_risk_regime": "WEAK",
  "theme_opportunity_regime": "MIXED",
  "trade_mode": "SELECTIVE_DEFENSIVE_ONLY",
  "external_context_available": true,
  "external_context_quality": "complete",
  "primary_themes": [
    {
      "theme_name": "能源资源链",
      "theme_display_name": "能源资源链（煤炭/煤化工/燃气/油气）",
      "state": "NEAR_TRIGGERED",
      "rating": "B",
      "primary_sector": "油气资源",
      "co_primary_sectors": ["天然气", "煤化工概念"],
      "core_logic": "三板块同日进入近触发状态，形成能源链主题级共振；油气资源梯队完整（涨停5只+中军8只+后排10只），结构质量为COMPLETE_LADDER；风格从科技成长向防守资源切换，与该主题方向一致",
      "main_risks": [
        "NEXT_DAY_GAP_RISK：次日高开追高风险",
        "水发燃气5连板高标接力风险",
        "全市场WEAK环境压制",
        "缺少竞价封单量数据",
        "缺少个股换手率数据",
        "方向成交额代理偏风险回避",
        "[外部] 金宏气体Q1利润暴跌87%-90%，成交额最大中军面临基本面逆风",
        "[外部] 美国天然气期货价格承压（$2.66），对天然气共振方向构成商品价格压力",
        "[外部] theme_external_assessment=unclear，外部信号混合无法提供清晰多头确认"
      ],
      "external_context": {
        "theme_external_support": "unclear",
        "external_confidence": "medium",
        "supporting_events": ["煤炭日涨1.57%", "九丰能源Q1盈利+分红", "兴欣新材Q1营收净利双增"],
        "risk_events": ["金宏气体Q1利润预减87%-90%", "美国天然气期货价格弱势"],
        "note": "外部信号混合，不改变A股结构评级，不触发观察优先级提升"
      }
    }
  ],
  "watch_stocks": {
    "strength_anchors": [
      {"name": "水发燃气", "symbol": "603318", "ret_pct": 9.98, "consecutive_days": 5, "note": "全市场最高连板，能源链情绪锚，不等于买点"},
      {"name": "蜀道装备", "symbol": "300540", "ret_pct": 20.0, "note": "20cm涨停，创业板方向标杆，不等于买点"},
      {"name": "德龙汇能", "symbol": "000593", "ret_pct": 9.99, "consecutive_days": 2, "note": "2连板，油气方向核心锚，不等于买点"},
      {"name": "兴欣新材", "symbol": "001358", "ret_pct": 10.01, "note": "强度锚；[外部] Q1营收+11.18%、净利+22.98%"},
      {"name": "陕建股份", "symbol": "600248", "ret_pct": 10.12, "note": "强度锚"}
    ],
    "mid_observe": [
      {"name": "九丰能源", "symbol": "605090", "ret_pct": 5.07, "amount_yi": 26.76, "mcap_yi": 342.97, "note": "大市值活跃中军，需次日确认承接；[外部] Q1收入44.98亿/净利4.34亿+分红"},
      {"name": "杭氧股份", "symbol": "002430", "ret_pct": 6.07, "amount_yi": 14.97, "mcap_yi": 324.68, "note": "大市值中军，需次日确认承接"},
      {"name": "金宏气体", "symbol": "688106", "ret_pct": 6.37, "amount_yi": 33.2, "mcap_yi": 218.31, "note": "科创板中军，成交额最大；[外部⚠️] Q1净利预减87%-90%，需重点观察次日盘口是否消化利空"},
      {"name": "潜能恒信", "symbol": "300191", "ret_pct": 8.49, "amount_yi": 9.56, "note": "涨幅接近涨停，需确认次日是否回落"}
    ],
    "tail_validate": []
  },
  "risk_flags": [
    "LOW_BREADTH：上涨家数仅31.79%",
    "LIMIT_DOWN_PRESSURE：跌停28只",
    "INDEX_WEAKNESS：主要指数偏弱",
    "GROWTH_STYLE_WEAK：创业板指跌幅最大",
    "DIRECTIONAL_AMOUNT_RISK_OFF：方向成交额代理偏风险回避",
    "LIQUIDITY_SHRINKING：成交额小幅收缩",
    "NEXT_DAY_GAP_RISK：油气资源板块存在次日高开风险",
    "MISSING_AUCTION_SEAL_AMOUNT：无法判断次日开盘封单强度",
    "MISSING_STOCK_TURNOVER：无法判断筹码松动程度",
    "MISSING_MAIN_NET_INFLOW：无法判断主力资金方向",
    "[外部] JINHONG_GAS_PROFIT_WARNING：金宏气体Q1净利预减87%-90%",
    "[外部] US_NATGAS_PRICE_WEAK：美国天然气期货价格承压",
    "[外部] THEME_EXTERNAL_SUPPORT_UNCLEAR：能源资源链外部信号不清"
  ],
  "next_day_confirm_conditions": [
    "水发燃气续板或德龙汇能确认3连板，维持情绪锚",
    "九丰能源、杭氧股份等中军放量承接，不出现冲高回落",
    "金宏气体对利润预警反应可控，不出现放量大跌拖累中军线",
    "油气资源/天然气/煤化工概念继续位居板块涨幅前列，共振不塌方",
    "全市场跌停数未明显增加，上涨家数占比维持在30%以上"
  ],
  "downgrade_conditions": [
    "龙头断板或大幅回落逾7%，情绪锚动摇，主题降级至C",
    "中军缩量且冲高回落，承接不足，降级观察优先度",
    "金宏气体放量大跌逾5%，拖累中军承接线",
    "板块高开低走，GAP_RISK兑现，放弃本轮主线跟踪",
    "天然气或煤化工概念任一跌幅超1%，共振证据减弱"
  ],
  "external_context_events": {
    "overnight_events": [
      {"event": "US Natural Gas Futures Price Drop", "impact_direction": "negative", "impact_strength": "medium", "related_theme": "能源资源链"},
      {"event": "Coal Price Increase", "impact_direction": "positive", "impact_strength": "low", "related_theme": "能源资源链"}
    ],
    "policy_events": [
      {"event": "Jiufeng Energy Q1 Results & Dividend", "impact_direction": "positive", "impact_strength": "low", "related_symbols": ["605090"]},
      {"event": "Jinhong Gas Q1 Profit Warning", "impact_direction": "negative", "impact_strength": "high", "related_symbols": ["688106"]},
      {"event": "Xingxin New Material Q1 Growth", "impact_direction": "positive", "impact_strength": "low", "related_symbols": ["001358"]}
    ],
    "theme_external_assessment": {
      "theme": "能源资源链",
      "external_support": "unclear",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "note": "外部信号混合，不改变A股结构评级，不触发观察优先级提升"
    }
  },
  "background_only": [
    "土壤修复（market_leader_no_signal）",
    "猪肉概念（market_leader_no_signal）",
    "酿酒概念（market_leader_no_signal）",
    "节能环保（generic_context）",
    "新材料（generic_context）",
    "新能源车（generic_context）",
    "人工智能（generic_context）",
    "新能源（generic_context）",
    "电商概念（generic_context）",
    "5G概念（generic_context）",
    "物联网（generic_context）",
    "军工/卫星军工信息化（generic_context）",
    "并购重组概念（generic_context）"
  ],
  "not_recommendation": [
    "氢能源（weak_tape_structure：板块收跌）",
    "算力概念（weak_tape_structure：收跌+低收盘+低排名）",
    "碳交易（weak_tape_structure：板块收跌）",
    "风能（weak_tape_structure：收跌+低排名）",
    "PCB（weak_tape_structure：收跌+低收盘+低排名）",
    "CRO（weak_tape_structure：冲高回落）",
    "新零售（weak_tape_structure：收跌+低收盘）",
    "光刻机(胶)（weak_tape_structure：收跌+低收盘+低排名）",
    "新型城镇化（structure_watch：涨幅不足+接近前高，仅C级观察）",
    "化工原料（structure_watch：中军不足+接近前高，仅C级观察）",
    "装配建筑（structure_watch：中军不足+高开风险，仅C级观察）",
    "降解塑料（structure_watch：无涨停+涨幅微薄，仅D级观察）"
  ]
}