{ "trade_date": "2026-05-08", "next_trade_date": "2026-05-11", "source": "hermes_deepseek_v4_manual_with_project_skills", "external_context_quality": "unavailable", "external_context_provenance": "gemini_external_context_normalizer_v2", "external_context_scope": "compact_theme_and_representative_stocks", "external_context_note": "Gemini API搜索完全失败，0条原始发现，0条规范化事件。外部支持/风险权重均为none。所有判断纯基于量价结构与Strict Gate。", "market_risk_regime": "WARM_COOLING", "market_risk_subtype": "FROM_HOT_TO_COOLING", "theme_opportunity_regime": "SELECTIVE", "trade_mode": "SELECTIVE_DEFENSIVE", "regime_change_from_previous": "HOT/BROAD_RISK_ON → WARM/COOLING; ACTIVE_THEME_FOLLOW → SELECTIVE_DEFENSIVE; triggered从5降至4但厚度断崖(14 active→2 active)", "strict_plan_authority": "reports/trade_plan/20260508_next_day_trade_plan_sector_bound_v1_1_strict_news.json", "strict_plan_counts": { "active_plan": 2, "conditional_plan": 2, "observe_only": 26, "pre_strict_active": 30 }, "strict_plan_status_breakdown": { "strict_triggered_active_pass": 2, "strict_near_triggered_conditional": 2, "strict_structure_watch_to_observe": 26 }, "strict_plan_theme_consistency": { "strong": 2, "valid": 2, "weak": 26 }, "strict_plan_layer_count": { "triggered_sectors": 2, "near_triggered_sectors": 2, "structure_watch_sectors": 26 }, "theme_sets": { "triggered_clusters": ["光纤概念", "卫星军工信息化", "机器人智能制造", "航天航空"], "near_triggered_clusters": ["AI光通信链", "北斗导航", "无人机"], "structure_watch_clusters": ["传感器", "养老概念", "华为汽车", "大飞机", "安防概念", "小米汽车", "微利股", "新型城镇化", "智能家居", "汽车热管理", "精准诊断", "网络安全通信", "通信技术", "量子科技", "飞行汽车(eVTOL)"], "weak_tape_clusters": ["AI算力基础设施", "国产软件", "婴童概念", "数字经济", "无人驾驶", "荣耀概念", "虚拟现实"] }, "market_summary": "全市场从HOT降温至WARM/COOLING。AI产业链主线急剧退潮：AI光通信链从triggered降为near_triggered，多模态AI退出triggered，AI算力基础设施降为weak_tape。军工方向取代AI成为仅存的triggered主线（卫星军工信息化+航天航空），但厚度严重不足——仅2只通过Strict Gate。光纤概念和机器人智能制造虽仍在triggered列表，但Strict Gate将其对应26只候选全部降为observe_only。30选2的压缩率(93.3%)为近期最高。外部资讯完全不可用，叠加隔周末(5/11周一)消息面黑洞，交易环境从进攻转为防御。", "index_summary": "指数层面数据未在输入JSON中提供，仅基于板块结构判断市场状态。", "previous_day_review": { "plan_date": "2026-05-07", "execution_date": "2026-05-08", "review_method": "entry_based_outcome_eval_v1_2_plus_lesson_registry", "outcome_eval_path": "reports/outcome/20260507_plan_20260508_outcome_eval_v1_2_entry_based.md", "lesson_registry_path": "reports/learning/20260508_lesson_registry.md", "auction_fact_path": "reports/facts/20260507_plan_20260508_auction_verification_fact_v1_2.md", "plan_counts": { "active_plan": 14, "conditional_plan": 5, "observe_only": 11 }, "entry_based_summary": { "entry_effective": 10, "no_entry": 20, "active_entry_effective": 8, "conditional_entry_effective": 2, "clean_trigger_win_rate": "90% (9/10 positive entry-close)", "avg_entry_close_pct": 2.91, "avg_mfe_pct": 4.5, "avg_mae_pct": -0.48, "avg_daily_close_pct": 1.58 }, "template_outcome_performance": { "reclaim_no_invalid": { "count": 7, "win_rate": "85.71% (6/7)", "avg_entry_close_pct": 3.32, "avg_mfe_pct": 4.87, "avg_mae_pct": -0.25, "best_sample": "维宏股份 entry+7.99% MFE+9.42%", "worst_sample": "安达智能 entry-0.59% giveback 3.12%", "verdict": "最优干净触发形态" }, "triggered_after_prior_boundary_touch": { "count": 3, "win_rate": "100% (3/3)", "avg_entry_close_pct": 1.94, "avg_mfe_pct": 3.64, "avg_mae_pct": -1.03, "verdict": "可用但质量弱于reclaim_no_invalid" } }, "non_entry_samples": { "no_pullback_zone_touch": { "count": 1, "sample": "烽火通信 +10.00%", "verdict": "VWAP回踩模板的系统性盲区——强势不回踩票被完全错过" }, "same_bar_trigger_invalid_ambiguous": { "count": 3, "samples": ["鼎捷数智", "昆仑万维", "豪恩汽电"], "verdict": "不应计入clean entry，独立高风险组" }, "invalid_before_entry": { "count": 2, "samples": ["长飞光纤", "南极光"], "verdict": "开盘即失效，规则正确阻断" } }, "observe_only_shadow_alpha": [ {"name": "宇瞳光学", "theme": "AI眼镜", "daily_pct": 7.62}, {"name": "华民股份", "theme": "3D打印", "daily_pct": 6.24}, {"name": "北特科技", "theme": "汽车热管理", "daily_pct": 3.98}, {"name": "澳弘电子", "theme": "卫星军工信息化", "daily_pct": 3.10} ], "auction_signal_correlation": { "auction_open_confirmed_strength": {"count": 4, "effective_entry": 3, "note": "最强确认信号组合"}, "auction_open_failed": {"count": 1, "effective_entry": 1, "note": "安达智能唯一负收益入场，竞价失败是风险信号"} }, "key_lessons_from_registry": [ "CLEAN_TRIGGER: entry-based复盘显著优于日线口径——识别出安达giveback和烽火missed，日线看不出来", "RECLAIM_NO_INVALID: 最优触发形态，MFE 4.87%/MAE -0.25%，应固定为一级统计", "MISSED_MOMENTUM: 烽火通信+10%被VWAP回踩模板错过→建shadow不直接改模板", "AMBIGUOUS: same_bar_trigger_invalid不应计入clean entry—3样本表现不清晰", "HIGH_GIVEBACK: 安达智能giveback 3.12%→需T+1/T+2/T+5追踪", "OBSERVE_SHADOW: observe_only有alpha但不升级strict gate→建shadow统计积累30-60日" ] }, "entry_based_outcome_review": { "outcome_eval_version": "v1_2_entry_based", "rows": 30, "entry_effective": 10, "entry_status_breakdown": { "clean_or_usable_trigger": 10, "not_triggered_boundary_touched": 3, "same_bar_trigger_invalid_ambiguous": 3, "invalid_before_entry": 2, "no_pullback_zone_touch": 1, "not_triggered": 1, "observe_boundary_touched": 6, "observe_no_trade": 5 }, "active_plan_entry_detail": [ {"name": "维宏股份", "theme": "机器人智能制造", "outcome": "reclaim_no_invalid", "entry": 34.17, "entry_close_pct": 7.99, "mfe_pct": 9.42, "mae_pct": 0.38, "capture": 0.85, "giveback_pct": 1.43, "daily_pct": 6.65}, {"name": "腾景科技", "theme": "光纤概念", "outcome": "reclaim_no_invalid", "entry": 353.18, "entry_close_pct": 5.47, "mfe_pct": 5.84, "mae_pct": -0.88, "capture": 0.94, "giveback_pct": 0.37, "daily_pct": 2.91}, {"name": "华辰装备", "theme": "机器人智能制造", "outcome": "triggered_after_prior_boundary_touch", "entry": 33.87, "entry_close_pct": 4.69, "mfe_pct": 6.23, "mae_pct": -0.97, "capture": 0.75, "giveback_pct": 1.54, "daily_pct": 4.85}, {"name": "罗博特科", "theme": "AI光通信链", "outcome": "reclaim_no_invalid", "entry": 502.55, "entry_close_pct": 3.31, "mfe_pct": 5.26, "mae_pct": -0.41, "capture": 0.63, "giveback_pct": 1.95, "daily_pct": 1.74}, {"name": "新易盛", "theme": "AI光通信链", "outcome": "reclaim_no_invalid", "entry": 541.53, "entry_close_pct": 1.87, "mfe_pct": 3.59, "mae_pct": 0.91, "capture": 0.52, "giveback_pct": 1.72, "daily_pct": -2.10}, {"name": "超讯通信", "theme": "多模态AI", "outcome": "reclaim_no_invalid", "entry": 35.80, "entry_close_pct": 1.73, "mfe_pct": 2.43, "mae_pct": -0.34, "capture": 0.71, "giveback_pct": 0.70, "daily_pct": 0.89}, {"name": "津荣天宇", "theme": "机器人智能制造", "outcome": "triggered_after_prior_boundary_touch", "entry": 29.19, "entry_close_pct": 0.07, "mfe_pct": 1.23, "mae_pct": -1.06, "capture": 0.06, "giveback_pct": 1.16, "daily_pct": 0.79}, {"name": "安达智能", "theme": "机器人智能制造", "outcome": "reclaim_no_invalid", "entry": 213.59, "entry_close_pct": -0.59, "mfe_pct": 2.53, "mae_pct": -1.15, "capture": -0.23, "giveback_pct": 3.12, "daily_pct": -2.85} ], "conditional_plan_entry_detail": [ {"name": "世运电路", "theme": "半导体材料设备", "outcome": "reclaim_no_invalid", "entry": 57.80, "entry_close_pct": 3.48, "mfe_pct": 5.02, "mae_pct": -0.26, "capture": 0.69, "giveback_pct": 1.54, "daily_pct": 1.32}, {"name": "奥比中光", "theme": "英伟达概念", "outcome": "triggered_after_prior_boundary_touch", "entry": 87.01, "entry_close_pct": 1.05, "mfe_pct": 3.46, "mae_pct": -1.05, "capture": 0.30, "giveback_pct": 2.41, "daily_pct": 1.64} ] }, "lesson_registry_summary": [ { "lesson_id": "CLEAN_TRIGGER_ENTRY_BASED_EFFECTIVE", "status": "validated_single_day_needs_more_samples", "finding": "clean_or_usable_trigger在entry-based口径下表现明显优于普通日线复盘", "action": "保留clean trigger作为主绩效统计样本；按30/60日滚动验证", "do_not_change": "不要因单日结果直接提高仓位或放宽入场" }, { "lesson_id": "RECLAIM_NO_INVALID_PRIMARY_TRIGGER", "status": "validated_single_day_needs_more_samples", "finding": "reclaim_no_invalid是当前表现最好的干净触发形态(7样本,6正,MFE均值4.87%)", "action": "后续日报中将reclaim_no_invalid固定作为一级template_outcome统计", "do_not_change": "不要把所有VWAP回踩都视为有效，必须要求reclaim_no_invalid" }, { "lesson_id": "PRIOR_BOUNDARY_TRIGGER_LOWER_QUALITY", "status": "hypothesis", "finding": "triggered_after_prior_boundary_touch可用但MAE更深(-1.03% vs -0.25%)", "action": "后续作为usable_but_lower_quality_trigger单独统计", "do_not_change": "暂不作为否决，只降权观察" }, { "lesson_id": "AMBIGUOUS_TRIGGER_NOT_CLEAN_ENTRY", "status": "validated_logic_rule", "finding": "same_bar_trigger_invalid_ambiguous不应计入clean entry", "action": "后续outcome_eval继续将ambiguous独立为高风险组", "do_not_change": "不要把ambiguous当作正常触发" }, { "lesson_id": "MISSED_MOMENTUM_NO_PULLBACK", "status": "important_shadow_hypothesis", "finding": "VWAP回踩模板会错过强势不回踩直拉票，烽火通信+10%是典型样本", "action": "建立shadow分支跟踪no_pullback_zone_touch+强开盘确认", "do_not_change": "不要直接改成追高买入" }, { "lesson_id": "OBSERVE_ONLY_SHADOW_ALPHA", "status": "important_shadow_hypothesis", "finding": "observe_only中存在明显强表现样本(宇瞳+7.6%/华民+6.2%等)", "action": "后续新增observe_only_shadow_alpha统计", "do_not_change": "不要因单日observe_only大涨直接放宽strict gate" }, { "lesson_id": "HIGH_GIVEBACK_NEEDS_TN_FOLLOWUP", "status": "needs_tn_validation", "finding": "安达智能MFE 2.53%但收盘-2.85%，giveback 3.12%", "action": "T+1/T+2/T+5检查是否继续弱化或反包", "do_not_change": "不要用T+0止盈逻辑直接套用A股买入当日" } ], "next_validation_tasks": [ "将outcome_eval_v1_2_entry_based纳入daily afterclose pipeline", "建立T+1/T+2/T+3/T+5 outcome panel", "为missed_momentum_no_pullback建立shadow统计(不进入正式交易)", "为observe_only_shadow_alpha建立shadow统计(不直接放宽Strict Gate)", "T+1追踪安达智能giveback后走势", "累计30~60个交易日后评估规则修改" ], "theme_summary": [ { "theme_name": "卫星军工信息化", "state": "TRIGGERED", "rating": "B", "active_count": 1, "core_logic": "唯一维持triggered且有active通过的军工主题。乾照光电独苗，技术B级/量能温和，主题厚度严重不足", "risk": "孤立主题，仅1只active。若周一板块绿盘→直接降级" }, { "theme_name": "航天航空", "state": "TRIGGERED", "rating": "B", "active_count": 1, "core_logic": "与卫星军工信息化同属军工方向。道生天合独苗，量能strong_expansion但技术B级", "risk": "军工方向集中风险。若周一两个军工主题同时转弱→全面无主线" }, { "theme_name": "AI光通信链", "state": "NEAR_TRIGGERED(DOWNGRADED)", "rating": "C+", "active_count": 0, "conditional_count": 1, "core_logic": "从triggered降级——最明显的退潮信号。星网锐捷conditional需主题重新升级", "risk": "若周一不能修复反弹→退潮确认，星网锐捷当日不观察" }, { "theme_name": "光纤概念", "state": "TRIGGERED_BUT_NO_ACTIVE", "rating": "B-", "active_count": 0, "core_logic": "仍在triggered列表，但Strict Gate将所有光纤票降为observe_only。烽火通信5/8涨停+10%但被系统错过", "risk": "主题虽触发但无个股承接，观察烽火通信次日是否分化" }, { "theme_name": "机器人智能制造", "state": "TRIGGERED_BUT_NO_ACTIVE", "rating": "B-", "active_count": 0, "core_logic": "仍在triggered，但所有候选降为observe_only。前日维宏/华辰表现优异但不能线性外推", "risk": "降温环境下机器人主题未必延续，前日4只entry正收益不代表周一可继续" } ], "active_plan_focus": [ { "symbol": "SZSE.300102", "name": "乾照光电", "theme": "卫星军工信息化", "layer": "triggered_sectors", "role": "MID", "technical_grade": "B", "amount_state": "mild_expansion", "template": "TPL_PULLBACK_VWAP_RECLAIM", "entry_zone_reference": "VWAP 32.51附近回踩重新站回", "invalid_price": 31.86, "chase_ceiling": 34.06, "vwap_reference": 32.51, "prev_close": 33.07, "prev_high": 33.44, "ma5": 32.58, "ma20": 32.92, "atr14": 1.88, "turnover_rate": 9.72, "confirmation_required": ["回踩VWAP后重新站回", "未有效跌破entry_zone下沿", "主题不转弱", "成交额/换手未异常萎缩"], "abandon_conditions": ["跌破31.86→失效", "主题板块绿盘→降级", "高开超34.06→不追", "周一开盘缩量或假突破→放弃"], "watch_note": "技术B级非最优，量能仅温和放量。卫星军工信息化triggered层仅此1只active。隔周末消息面不可预测" }, { "symbol": "SHSE.601026", "name": "道生天合", "theme": "航天航空", "layer": "triggered_sectors", "role": "MID", "technical_grade": "B", "amount_state": "strong_expansion", "template": "TPL_PULLBACK_VWAP_RECLAIM", "entry_zone_reference": "VWAP 18.74附近回踩重新站回", "invalid_price": 18.56, "chase_ceiling": 19.50, "vwap_reference": 18.74, "prev_close": 18.93, "prev_high": 19.35, "ma5": 17.99, "ma20": 18.43, "atr14": 0.53, "turnover_rate": 9.97, "confirmation_required": ["回踩VWAP后重新站回", "未有效跌破invalid 18.56", "主题不转弱", "成交额/换手未异常萎缩"], "abandon_conditions": ["跌破18.56→失效放弃", "航天航空板块绿盘→降级", "高开超19.50→不追", "周一开盘缩量或假突破→放弃"], "watch_note": "量能strong_expansion优于乾照光电，但技术仍为B级。航天航空与卫星军工同属军工方向，存在主题过度集中风险" } ], "conditional_plan_focus": [ { "symbol": "SZSE.000801", "name": "四川九洲", "theme": "无人机", "layer": "near_triggered_sectors", "role": "MID", "technical_grade": "B", "amount_state": "strong_expansion", "template": "TPL_PULLBACK_VWAP_RECLAIM", "invalid_price": 13.65, "chase_ceiling": 14.46, "vwap_reference": 13.80, "prev_close": 14.04, "ma5": 13.27, "ma20": 13.78, "turnover_rate": 3.42, "prerequisite": "无人机主题必须从near_triggered升级确认后才观察", "confirmation_required": ["回踩VWAP 13.80后重新站回", "未跌破invalid 13.65", "主题不转弱"], "abandon_if": "主题不升级→当日不观察" }, { "symbol": "SZSE.002396", "name": "星网锐捷", "theme": "AI光通信链", "layer": "near_triggered_sectors(DOWNGRADED)", "role": "MID", "technical_grade": "B", "amount_state": "strong_expansion", "template": "TPL_PULLBACK_VWAP_RECLAIM", "invalid_price": 27.87, "chase_ceiling": 29.79, "vwap_reference": 28.41, "prev_close": 28.92, "ma5": 27.24, "ma20": 27.76, "turnover_rate": 7.49, "prerequisite": "AI光通信链必须从near_triggered重新升级为triggered（该主题刚从triggered降级，需要更强证据）", "confirmation_required": ["回踩VWAP 28.41后重新站回", "未跌破invalid 27.87", "AI光通信链整体不转弱", "新易盛/罗博特科作为强度锚需稳住"], "abandon_if": "主题不升级或AI光通信链周一不能修复→当日不观察" } ], "next_day_key_watch": [ {"type": "strength_anchor", "name": "新易盛", "theme": "AI光通信链", "watch_for": "是否稳住，判断AI光通信链修复强度"}, {"type": "strength_anchor", "name": "罗博特科", "theme": "AI光通信链", "watch_for": "是否稳住，判断AI光通信链修复强度"}, {"type": "missed_momentum_shadow", "name": "烽火通信", "theme": "光纤概念", "watch_for": "涨停次日是否分化→判断光纤概念持续性"}, {"type": "high_giveback_t1_track", "name": "安达智能", "theme": "机器人智能制造", "watch_for": "giveback后是否继续弱化或反包"}, {"type": "observe_shadow_alpha", "names": ["宇瞳光学", "华民股份", "北特科技", "澳弘电子"], "watch_for": "是否延续强势→积累shadow统计"}, {"type": "theme_diffusion", "theme": "军工方向", "watch_for": "卫星军工/航天航空/无人机是否联动扩散"} ], "risk_flags": [ {"level": "high", "flag": "周末消息面黑洞", "detail": "5/8周五→5/11周一隔两天，外部资讯不可用，无法预判国内外重大事件"}, {"level": "high", "flag": "主题厚度严重不足", "detail": "4个triggered但仅2只active通过Strict Gate，属于'伪触发'状态"}, {"level": "medium_high", "flag": "AI主线退潮", "detail": "AI光通信链降级/多模态AI退出triggered/AI算力基础设施→weak_tape"}, {"level": "medium", "flag": "军工方向过度集中", "detail": "全部active+conditional(乾照/道生/四川九洲)集中在军工方向"}, {"level": "medium", "flag": "外部资讯完全不可用", "detail": "Gemini搜索失败，无法从资讯层确认任何主题催化或风险"}, {"level": "medium", "flag": "前日高giveback票需要T+N跟踪", "detail": "安达智能giveback 3.12%，需观察是否继续弱化"} ], "execution_discipline": [ "集合竞价阶段：重点看乾照光电/道生天合竞价额是否萎缩(<5/8的50%)；高开超chase_ceiling直接放弃；关注shadow alpha票竞价表现", "开盘前30分钟：等VWAP回踩确认，不回踩不进；板块绿盘则active降级；关注AI光通信链修复强度", "上午：conditional主题未升级则不观察；active未触发则不追", "午后：若上午未触发任何entry→全天放弃，不做尾盘补救", "尾盘：不新开仓位；已入场仓位若giveback超MFE 50%→考虑次日流动性风险", "全局：隔周末+外部资讯缺失→仓位必须极度保守；宁可错过不做错" ], "not_recommendation": true, "output_files": { "full_report": "reports/full/20260508_full_report_v2.md", "wechat_brief": "reports/wechat/20260508_wechat_brief_v2.txt", "agent_summary": "reports/json/20260508_agent_summary_v2.json" }, "data_lineage": { "evidence_pack": "evidence/evidence_pack_20260508.json", "price_refs": "evidence/price_refs_20260508.json", "technical_facts": "evidence/technical_facts_compact_20260508.json", "strict_plan": "reports/trade_plan/20260508_next_day_trade_plan_sector_bound_v1_1_strict_news.json", "checklist_csv": "reports/trade_plan/20260508_intraday_watch_checklist_v1_news.csv", "external_context": "external_context/external_context_20260508_strict_v1.json (unavailable)", "previous_outcome_raw": "reports/outcome/20260507_plan_20260508_outcome_raw.json", "previous_outcome_eval": "reports/outcome/20260507_plan_20260508_outcome_eval_v1_2_entry_based.md", "previous_lesson_registry": "reports/learning/20260508_lesson_registry.md", "previous_auction_fact": "reports/facts/20260507_plan_20260508_auction_verification_fact_v1_2.md", "collector_version": "concept_sector_wave_evidence_v1.4.2.3_patch2a_eligibility_tighten" }, "generation_note": "本版基于entry-based outcome_eval V1.2 + lesson_registry做精确复盘。MFE/MAE使用1分钟K线计算，entry_price使用auction_fact中的trigger_price_used。external_context完全不可用，所有判断纯基于量价结构。" }