{ "trade_date": "2026-05-11", "next_trade_date": "2026-05-12", "source": "hermes_deepseek_v4_manual_with_project_skills", "correction_note": "本版为修正版。初版错误地将market_risk_regime从HOT误写为WARM/COOLING，现已基于evidence_pack.market.market_risk_regime(HOT score 95)纠正。全市场维持HOT/BROAD_RISK_ON，但theme_opportunity_regime为MIXED/DEFENSIVE_ROTATION，两者是独立维度。Strict Gate 0 active是主题厚度不足所致，不是市场弱。", "external_context_quality": "partial", "external_context_provenance": "gemini_external_context_normalizer_v2", "external_context_scope": "compact_theme_and_representative_stocks", "external_context_note": "限于4主题代表股搜索，非全市场资讯。5条查询5条命中。发现日本光刻胶出口管制(medium_high risk)、稀土立法双面信号(mixed)、中巨芯减持(medium risk)三个增量信息。", "market_risk_regime": "HOT", "market_risk_subtype": "BROAD_RISK_ON", "market_risk_score": 95, "theme_opportunity_regime": "MIXED", "theme_opportunity_subtype": "DEFENSIVE_ROTATION", "theme_opportunity_score": 75, "trade_mode": "SELECTIVE_DEFENSIVE_ONLY", "regime_analysis": "market_risk_regime (HOT,普涨强进攻环境) 与 theme_opportunity_regime (MIXED,防守轮动) 是两个独立维度。市场整体热度维持高位(成交额3.5万亿,创业板+3.5%,涨停95只,上涨比58.9%),但主线从AI产业链切换至半导体制造链+防守资源线+医药,新主线厚度不足。需要区分'市场降温'和'主题切换期'——当前是后者。", "strict_plan_authority": "reports/trade_plan/20260511_next_day_trade_plan_sector_bound_v1_1_strict_news.json", "strict_plan_counts": { "active_plan": 0, "conditional_plan": 1, "observe_only": 29, "pre_strict_active": 30 }, "strict_plan_status_breakdown": { "strict_structure_watch_to_observe": 24, "strict_near_triggered_conditional": 1, "strict_near_triggered_insufficient_to_observe": 2, "strict_triggered_insufficient_to_observe": 3 }, "strict_plan_theme_consistency": { "strong": 3, "weak": 24, "valid": 3 }, "market_summary": "全市场维持HOT/BROAD_RISK_ON(score 95)强进攻环境,成交额3.5万亿,创业板+3.5%六指数全涨,上涨比58.9%,涨停95只/跌停5只。但主线急剧切换:AI产业链(光纤/机器人/多模态AI)全部退出triggered,半导体制造链(存储芯片/中芯概念/IGBT概念)新晋triggered但厚度不足。防守资源线(稀土永磁/玻璃基板)near_triggered,医药方向出现集中shadow alpha(病原体防治7只/创新药5只)。", "index_summary": { "shanghai": {"close": 4225.02, "ret_pct": 1.08, "amount_yi": 15844}, "shenzhen": {"close": 15899.30, "ret_pct": 2.16, "amount_yi": 19545}, "chinext": {"close": 3928.97, "ret_pct": 3.50, "amount_yi": 9316}, "csi300": {"close": 4951.84, "ret_pct": 1.64, "amount_yi": 9045}, "csi500": {"close": 8839.74, "ret_pct": 1.67, "amount_yi": 7091}, "csi1000": {"close": 8866.78, "ret_pct": 1.44, "amount_yi": 7425}, "total_amount_yi": 35095, "limit_up": 95, "limit_down": 5 }, "previous_day_review": { "plan_date": "2026-05-08", "execution_date": "2026-05-11", "plan_counts": {"active_plan": 2, "conditional_plan": 2, "observe_only": 26}, "entry_effective": 2, "no_entry": 28, "active_outcomes": { "triggered_count": 1, "no_trigger_count": 1, "entry_effective_count": 1, "details": [ {"symbol": "SHSE.601026", "name": "道生天合", "theme": "航天航空", "outcome": "reclaim_no_invalid", "entry": 18.74, "entry_close_pct": 0.43, "MFE_pct": 1.28, "MAE_pct": -0.85, "day_close_pct": -0.58, "giveback_pct": 0.85}, {"symbol": "SZSE.300102", "name": "乾照光电", "theme": "卫星军工信息化", "outcome": "no_pullback_zone_touch", "day_close_pct": 1.06} ] }, "conditional_outcomes": { "triggered_count": 1, "no_trigger_count": 1, "entry_effective_count": 1, "details": [ {"symbol": "SZSE.000801", "name": "四川九洲", "theme": "无人机", "outcome": "reclaim_no_invalid", "entry": 13.80, "entry_close_pct": 2.90, "MFE_pct": 6.09, "MAE_pct": 0.29, "day_close_pct": 1.14, "giveback_pct": 3.19, "flag": "HIGH_GIVEBACK"}, {"symbol": "SZSE.002396", "name": "星网锐捷", "theme": "AI光通信链", "outcome": "no_pullback_zone_touch", "day_close_pct": 9.99, "flag": "MISSED_MOMENTUM_NO_PULLBACK_2ND_CASE"} ] }, "observe_strong_count": 7, "observe_strong_details": [ {"symbol": "SZSE.300639", "name": "凯普生物", "theme": "精准诊断", "day_close_pct": 12.87}, {"symbol": "SZSE.002708", "name": "光洋股份", "theme": "飞行汽车", "day_close_pct": 6.91}, {"symbol": "SHSE.600664", "name": "哈药股份", "theme": "养老概念", "day_close_pct": 6.65}, {"symbol": "SZSE.300507", "name": "苏奥传感", "theme": "传感器", "day_close_pct": 6.12}, {"symbol": "SHSE.600100", "name": "同方股份", "theme": "安防概念", "day_close_pct": 4.70}, {"symbol": "SZSE.301191", "name": "菲菱科思", "theme": "网络安全通信", "day_close_pct": 4.69}, {"symbol": "SHSE.688816", "name": "易思维", "theme": "小米汽车", "day_close_pct": 3.04} ], "key_lessons": [ "HOT市场+主题切换→Strict Gate 0 active,不是系统问题而是厚度不足", "VWAP回踩模板第2例missed_momentum(星网锐捷+9.99%),规律正在形成", "医药方向首次出现集中shadow alpha,需要跟踪是否有主题级别持续性", "四川九洲giveback 3.19%严重,需要T+N跟踪" ], "data_completeness": "outcome_eval_v1_2_entry_based + lesson_registry + auction_fact全部可用" }, "entry_based_outcome_review": { "source": "reports/outcome/20260508_plan_20260511_outcome_eval_v1_2_entry_based.md", "rows": 30, "entry_effective": 2, "no_entry": 28, "by_bucket": { "active_plan": {"count": 1, "win_rate": "100%", "avg_entry_close_pct": 0.43, "avg_MFE_pct": 1.28, "avg_MAE_pct": -0.85}, "conditional_plan": {"count": 1, "win_rate": "100%", "avg_entry_close_pct": 2.90, "avg_MFE_pct": 6.09, "avg_MAE_pct": 0.29} }, "by_template_outcome": { "reclaim_no_invalid": {"count": 2, "win_rate": "100%", "avg_entry_close_pct": 1.66, "avg_MFE_pct": 3.68, "avg_MAE_pct": -0.28} }, "missed_momentum_no_pullback": { "count": 1, "stock": "星网锐捷", "day_close_pct": 9.99, "is_2nd_case": true, "first_case": "烽火通信(5/8)" } }, "lesson_registry_summary": [ {"lesson": "CLEAN_TRIGGER_ENTRY_BASED_EFFECTIVE", "status": "validated", "note": "2/2 reclaim_no_invalid全正"}, {"lesson": "RECLAIM_NO_INVALID_PRIMARY_TRIGGER", "status": "validated", "note": "当前最佳干净触发形态"}, {"lesson": "MISSED_MOMENTUM_NO_PULLBACK", "status": "2nd_case_confirmed", "note": "烽火(5/8)+星网锐捷(5/11),VWAP回踩模板系统性错过强势不回踩票"}, {"lesson": "OBSERVE_ONLY_SHADOW_ALPHA", "status": "shadow", "note": "7只≥3%,医药方向集中,不构成放宽Strict Gate理由"}, {"lesson": "HIGH_GIVEBACK_NEEDS_TN_FOLLOWUP", "status": "needs_tn_validation", "note": "四川九洲MFE+6.09%但giveback 3.19%"}, {"lesson": "AMBIGUOUS_TRIGGER_NOT_CLEAN_ENTRY", "status": "validated", "note": "本次无ambiguous样本"}, {"lesson": "STRICT_GATE_ZERO_ACTIVE_IN_HOT", "status": "new_hypothesis", "note": "HOT市场+主题切换→0 active,需30日验证是否过严"} ], "next_validation_tasks": [ "T+1 四川九洲(000801) giveback跟踪:5/12是否继续弱化或反包", "T+3 道生天合(601026) 跟踪:已触发但日线绿盘", "半导体链(IGBT/存储/中芯)是否5/12增厚→影响下一轮Strict Gate", "医药方向shadow alpha是否有主题级别持续性", "VWAP回踩模板missed_momentum第3例是否出现→触发模板修订讨论" ], "theme_summary": [ { "theme_name": "存储芯片+中芯概念+IGBT概念(半导体制造链)", "state": "TRIGGERED", "layer": "triggered_sectors", "rating": "B", "active_count": 0, "core_logic": "三主题全部triggered但Strict Gate因role/量能不达标全部降为observe_only。半导体链是新主线但厚度严重不足。", "risk": "日本光刻胶出口管制间接影响半导体链情绪;主题从AI切换到半导体后,role多为WATCH(非MID弹性),Strict Gate可能系统性严苛" }, { "theme_name": "稀土永磁+玻璃基板(防守资源线)", "state": "NEAR_TRIGGERED", "layer": "near_triggered_sectors", "rating": "B-", "active_count": 0, "core_logic": "稀土立法保障(正面)+出口管制(负面)=mixed信号;玻璃基板无外部资讯信息。", "risk": "信号混合,方向不确定" }, { "theme_name": "光刻机(胶)", "state": "NEAR_TRIGGERED", "layer": "near_triggered_sectors", "rating": "B-", "active_count": 0, "conditional_count": 1, "core_logic": "安集科技为唯一conditional。日本出口管制+同板块减持构成双重外部压力,条件苛刻。", "risk": "日本光刻胶出口配额制;中巨芯2.89%减持;安集科技amount_state=normal" }, { "theme_name": "光通信模块(AI光通信链)", "state": "NEAR_TRIGGERED", "layer": "near_triggered_sectors", "rating": "B", "active_count": 0, "core_logic": "星网锐捷今日涨停+9.99%,但VWAP模板错过。AI退潮但未消失。" }, { "theme_name": "医药方向(病原体防治+创新药+精准医疗)", "state": "STRUCTURE_WATCH", "layer": "structure_watch_sectors", "rating": "C+", "active_count": 0, "core_logic": "首次出现集中shadow alpha:凯普+12.87%、哈药+6.65%。仅跟踪,不升级。" } ], "next_day_key_watch": [], "active_plan_focus": [], "conditional_plan_focus": [ { "symbol": "SHSE.688019", "name": "安集科技", "theme": "光刻机(胶)", "state": "near_triggered", "template": "TPL_PULLBACK_VWAP_RECLAIM", "entry_zone_low": 265.44, "entry_zone_high": 270.89, "vwap_reference": 268.8467, "invalid_price": 264.08, "chase_ceiling": 278.31, "amount_state": "normal", "technical_grade": "B", "confirmation_required": [ "price_reclaim_vwap_reference", "no_effective_break_below_entry_zone_low", "theme_not_weakening", "amount_or_turnover_not_shrinking_intraday" ], "external_risks": [ "日本光刻胶出口管制(配额减少10%-15%,交货周期4-6月)", "同板块中巨芯(688549)2.89%减持公告(情绪面间接拖累)" ], "strict_conditions_note": "amount_state=normal+外部政策双压,conditional条件比普通near_triggered更苛刻。不开盘盲追,不回调不进。跌破264.08→失效,高开超278.31→放弃。" } ], "risk_flags": [ {"type": "policy_pressure", "theme": "光刻机(胶)", "description": "日本对华光刻胶出口配额减少10%-15%,交货周期延长至4-6月", "weight": "medium_high"}, {"type": "shareholder_reduction", "theme": "光刻机(胶)", "description": "中巨芯股东远致富海计划减持不超2.89%股份(5/15-8/14)", "weight": "medium"}, {"type": "theme_thickness", "theme": "半导体制造链", "description": "3个triggered主题全部被Strict Gate降级,role/量能不足", "weight": "medium"}, {"type": "missed_momentum_pattern", "theme": "VWAP回踩模板", "description": "第2例强势不回踩票被错过(星网锐捷+9.99%,前有烽火通信+10%)", "weight": "medium"}, {"type": "high_giveback", "theme": "无人机", "description": "四川九洲MFE+6.09%但giveback 3.19%,需T+N跟踪", "weight": "low"} ], "execution_discipline": [ "active=0 → 5/12不做任何主动交易,不手动从observe_only中找替代品", "安集科技conditional:只在回踩265.44-270.89后收复VWAP(268.85)时才进入观察;跌破264.08→失效;高开超278.31→放弃", "量能normal的conditional不能当作active对待,不回调不进", "跟踪半导体链(IGBT捷捷微电/上海贝岭/TCL中环)是否放量改善→仅观察,不预判升级", "不要因为市场HOT就手动从observe_only中找票升级" ], "not_recommendation": true, "output_files": { "full_report": "reports/full/20260511_full_report_v2.md", "wechat_brief": "reports/wechat/20260511_wechat_brief_v2.txt", "agent_summary": "reports/json/20260511_agent_summary_v2.json" }, "generation_note": "v2修正版。初版错误:将market_risk_regime从HOT误写为WARM/COOLING(5/8 agent_summary同错,已追溯)。evidence_pack显示5/8和5/11两个交易日market_risk_regime都是HOT score 95。修正要点:①market_risk_regime=HOT,②指数真实涨幅(创业板+3.5%),③区分'市场降温'和'主题切换期',④增加STRICT_GATE_ZERO_ACTIVE_IN_HOT新假说。" }