{
  "trade_date": "2026-05-19",
  "next_trade_date": "2026-05-20",
  "source": "hermes_deepseek_v4_manual_with_project_skills",
  "external_context_quality": "Gemini strict_v1: Search/grounding 不稳定(连续第4日 quota_exhausted, audit-only); Free V2 Shadow: partial",
  "external_context_note": "项目 Gemini Search/grounding 资讯层连续第4个交易日 quota_exhausted。Gemini 3.5 config probe 确认 plain provider / JSON generation 可用，仅 Search grounding 不可用。所有计划需 require_intraday_confirmation。",
  "strict_plan_counts": {
    "active_plan": 2,
    "conditional_plan": 9,
    "observe_only": 49,
    "forbidden": 3,
    "risk_verify": 7
  },
  "market_summary": "HOT(92),上证+0.92%报4169.54,中证1000+1.01%,涨比64.67%,涨停90跌停7。全市场成交约2.88万亿。连续第4日从COLD(26)修复至HOT(92)。theme_opportunity同时HOT(92),trade_mode=ACTIVE_THEME_FOLLOW。 | V2 Shadow: 主力连续4日净流出, HOT但热而不稳",
  "theme_summary": [
    "triggered: ChatGPT概念(1个,3个sector entry,2个通过Gate成为active)",
    "near_triggered: AI手机,AI智能体,云计算,互联网服务,华为昇腾,数字孪生,智慧政务,网络安全通信(8个,6个AI方向形成集群)",
    "structure_watch: 14个集群(含电网概念,新能源电力链,半导体材料设备等)",
    "filtered_noise: 存储芯片,MLCC,机器人(前日主线已退潮)"
  ],
  "previous_day_review": {
    "plan_date": "2026-05-18",
    "execution_date": "2026-05-19",
    "plan_counts": {
      "active_plan": 0,
      "conditional_plan": 10,
      "observe_only": 20
    },
    "entry_effective": 4,
    "entry_win_rate": "100%",
    "entry_avg_return_pct": 3.35,
    "entry_avg_mfe_pct": 3.92,
    "entry_avg_mae_pct": -0.82,
    "best_entry": "南网科技 +5.27%(MFE+6.73%)",
    "worst_entry": "新开普 +0.10%(capture 0.20, exit_quality_poor)",
    "formal_missed_momentum_count": 3,
    "formal_missed_total_pct": 19.5,
    "observe_only_shadow_alpha_count": 4,
    "invalid_or_ambiguous": [
      "万安科技 same_bar_ambiguous",
      "超讯通信 invalid_before_entry",
      "田中精机 reclaim_then_invalid(-8.69%)"
    ]
  },
  "entry_based_outcome_review": {
    "source": "reports/outcome/20260518_plan_20260519_outcome_eval_v1_2_entry_based.md",
    "entry_effective": 4,
    "all_clean_trigger": true,
    "reclaim_no_invalid_count": 2,
    "triggered_after_boundary_count": 2,
    "exit_quality_good": 3,
    "exit_quality_poor": 1
  },
  "lesson_registry_summary": [
    "CLEAN_TRIGGER: validated_single_day, 4/4全clean",
    "RECLAIM_NO_INVALID: 最佳触发形态,2只avg+4.19%",
    "PRIOR_BOUNDARY_TRIGGER: 可用但质量分化",
    "MISSED_MOMENTUM: 3只total+19.50%,持续量化",
    "OBSERVE_ONLY_SHADOW_ALPHA: 4只,不改Gate",
    "CAPTURE_GIVEBACK: 新开普capture 0.20标记exit_quality_poor",
    "新增: 田中精机reclaim_then_invalid(-8.69%)需T+N跟踪",
    "新增: 亚信安全observe_only→conditional升级,板块结构改善案例"
  ],
  "next_validation_tasks": [
    "5/20验证2只active是否突破触发",
    "T+1跟踪4只entry_effective延续(南网科技,容知日新,淮河能源,新开普)",
    "累计missed_momentum 10日滚动",
    "监控ChatGPT概念是否从triggered持续或退潮",
    "T+1验证电力observe_only是否正确（算电协同最强主线仅6 observe）",
    "跟踪主力资金流向趋势，如连续5日+净流出触发风险降级"
  ],
  "next_day_key_watch": [
    "ChatGPT概念涨停家数与封单金额(集合竞价)",
    "AI智能体/云计算/数字孪生竞价热度",
    "天源迪科/小商品城开盘价vs chase_ceiling"
  ],
  "active_plan_focus": [
    {
      "symbol": "SZSE.300047",
      "name": "天源迪科",
      "theme": "ChatGPT概念",
      "template": "BREAK_PREV_HIGH",
      "trigger": 13.19,
      "invalid": 13.1,
      "chase": 13.39
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SHSE.600415",
      "name": "小商品城",
      "theme": "ChatGPT概念",
      "template": "BREAK_PREV_HIGH",
      "trigger": 14.34,
      "invalid": 14.22,
      "chase": 14.61
    }
  ],
  "conditional_plan_focus": [
    {
      "symbol": "SHSE.688316",
      "name": "青云科技-U",
      "theme": "云计算",
      "template": "BREAK",
      "trigger": 80.49,
      "invalid": 79.53
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SHSE.600131",
      "name": "国网信通",
      "theme": "AI智能体",
      "template": "BREAK",
      "trigger": 19.07,
      "invalid": 18.89
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SHSE.603496",
      "name": "恒为科技",
      "theme": "数字孪生",
      "template": "BREAK",
      "trigger": 32.19,
      "invalid": 31.93
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SZSE.301218",
      "name": "华是科技",
      "theme": "智慧政务",
      "template": "BREAK",
      "trigger": 36.67,
      "invalid": 36.11
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SHSE.603171",
      "name": "税友股份",
      "theme": "云计算",
      "template": "VWAP_RECLAIM",
      "zone": "58.42-59.57",
      "invalid": 58.13
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SZSE.300085",
      "name": "银之杰",
      "theme": "云计算",
      "template": "VWAP_RECLAIM",
      "zone": "39.39-40.25",
      "invalid": 39.17
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SHSE.603956",
      "name": "威派格",
      "theme": "AI智能体",
      "template": "VWAP_RECLAIM",
      "zone": "6.11-6.18",
      "invalid": 6.09
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SHSE.688225",
      "name": "亚信安全",
      "theme": "网络安全通信",
      "template": "VWAP_RECLAIM",
      "zone": "17.31-17.63",
      "invalid": 17.23,
      "note": "昨日observe_only升级"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SHSE.688369",
      "name": "致远互联",
      "theme": "智慧政务",
      "template": "VWAP_RECLAIM",
      "zone": "24.16-24.61",
      "invalid": 24.05
    }
  ],
  "risk_flags": [
    "项目Gemini Search/grounding连续4日quota_exhausted,消息面黑洞",
    "HOT(92)接近5/8的95,热度极值风险",
    "ChatGPT概念厚度偏薄(3 entry仅2 pass)",
    "创业板独跌(-0.16%),风格分化",
    "前日conditional触发率40%,2 active触发率待验证",
    "主力连续4日净流出（今日-142.40亿）+市场HOT(92)→热而不稳，情绪逆转风险高",
    "Gemini连续第4日unavailable→消息面黑洞累积，需盘中确认所有计划"
  ],
  "execution_discipline": [
    "不追高:超过chase_ceiling放弃",
    "不抢开盘:BREAK模板等1分钟K线确认",
    "不临时升级observe_only",
    "VWAP回收模板只在回踩后收复时才观察",
    "conditional三重条件(主题升级+价格+未破invalid)缺一不可"
  ],
  "gm_sector_coverage_note": "AI方向全覆盖(ChatGPT triggered+6个AI near_triggered)。光刻胶/半导体17只在candidate_pool但全部observe_only(二波结构未形成)。存储芯片/MLCC在filtered_noise。机器人退潮至filtered_noise。",
  "output_files": {
    "full_report": "reports/full/20260519_full_report_v2.md",
    "wechat_brief": "reports/wechat/20260519_wechat_brief_v2.txt",
    "agent_summary": "reports/json/20260519_agent_summary_v2.json",
    "cross_verification_audit": "reports/audit/20260519_cross_verification_internet_vs_evidence.md",
    "shadow_audit": "reports/audit/20260519_external_context_v2_shadow_audit.md"
  },
  "correction_note": "无。market_risk_regime直接从evidence_pack读取为HOT(92),未沿袭前日agent_summary。theme_opportunity_regime同步HOT(92),两者均为独立维度。",
  "internet_cross_verification": {
    "status": "completed",
    "sources": [
      "财联社涨停分析 (finance.eastmoney.com/a/202605193741888120.html)",
      "证券时报主力资金流向日报 (finance.eastmoney.com/a/202605193742032378.html)",
      "东方财富证券聚焦 (finance.eastmoney.com/a/czqyw.html)",
      "算电协同专题 (finance.eastmoney.com/a/202605193741838551.html)"
    ],
    "index_accuracy": "all_matched (4/4 indices exact)",
    "limit_up_match": "exact (90=90, evidence=财联社不含ST)",
    "st_limit_up_pct": "~7% (healthy, continuing 5/18 trend)",
    "main_fund_flow": "净流出142.40亿，连续第4日净流出 — risk flag",
    "main_theme_gap": "算电协同/电力为互联网最强主线，系统仅structure_watch覆盖",
    "missed_events_count": 7,
    "key_findings": [
      "涨停90只与evidence_pack完美匹配",
      "主力连续4日净流出+市场HOT='热而不稳'风险信号",
      "结构信号再次部分弥补资讯盲区(ChatGPT+云计算→算端, 电力structure_watch→电端)",
      "ST涨停占比~7%，连续两日<10%，弱市信号消退"
    ]
  },
  "external_context_v2": {
    "status": "partial",
    "source": "free_web_deepseek_normalized",
    "theme_assessments": 13,
    "policy_events": 9,
    "risk_findings": 7,
    "actions": {
      "confirm": 4,
      "require_confirmation": 3,
      "no_action": 6,
      "downgrade": 0,
      "block": 0
    },
    "key_confirmations": [
      "ChatGPT概念/AI算力: high confidence, CPO涨停潮+算电协同政策共振",
      "云计算: high confidence, 计算机行业+2.08%净流入32.38亿",
      "AI智能体: medium confidence, Google I/O",
      "数字孪生: medium confidence"
    ],
    "key_require_confirmations": [
      "电力/算电协同: 互联网最强主线但系统仅observe_only, 不升级",
      "存储芯片: filtered_noise但27成员全valid, P1 audit sector mapping",
      "智慧政务: 互联网无明显催化, 保持conditional"
    ],
    "key_risks": [
      "主力连续4日净流出(-142亿): HOT(92)但热而不稳",
      "大唐发电/华电辽能发风险提示: 电力概念过热",
      "美股存储/半导体前夜大跌(已被科创50 V型反转化解)",
      "退市观典暴跌50%"
    ],
    "downgrade_list_empty": true,
    "block_list_empty": true,
    "shadow_audit": "reports/audit/20260519_external_context_v2_shadow_audit.md"
  }
}